BREXIT AND THE EMPOWERMENT OF VLADIMIR PUTIN

Ralph Early - First posted 28th January 2022

As I write, the leaders of Western democracies, journalists and political pundits of all stripes wait in anticipation, wondering if and when Russia will invade the Ukraine. This is an eventuality which seems highly likely and as well as the danger that Russia now poses for Western Europe, Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, has demanded the withdrawal of NATO forces from the Eastern European states of Bulgaria and Romania. Putin, like all dictators, needs an enemy. He needs to create the myth of threat to the security, economy and cultural identity of the Russian state in order to keep the Russian people on his side. He needs to engender and reinforce a sense of Russian nationalism manifested as an emotional perception of Russian strength shared by the Russian people, as this is the primary source of his political and personal power.

The identification of an enemy and the mythologising of threats is intrinsic to the fascist playbook. In Putin’s case, the Western European democracies united as the European Union serve his needs well, for he is able to paint the EU as both enemy and threat. The economic power of the EU as the largest single market in the world stands clearly as a threat to an economically weak Russia, as does the reality that the European nations united as a military force sit just across Russia’s borders. For Putin, it is only a short leap to define the European nations united as the European Union as Russia’s de facto European enemy sitting comfortably alongside Russia’s ancient Cold War adversary, the United States of America.

It has long been known that Putin’s strategic intentions have encompassed the objective of creating chaos in Western democracies. This is evidenced as a fact, for instance, by Putin-endorsed Russian hackers launching attacks on European and American infrastructure, as seen by attempts to hijack computer systems in order to shut down electricity supply grids and interfere with national medical services. Indeed, it is now confidently understood that Russia’s interference in the 2016 American presidential election gave Donald Trump the keys to the White House. It is then perhaps no surprise that Trump’s relationship with Putin has been marked by complete subservience and sycophancy towards the Russian leader.

For Putin, dividing and ideally breaking up the European Union has to be a key objective and should he achieve it, for him it would be a dream come true. In this respect, the British Conservative Party will undeniably have caused Putin to experience a sense of anticipatory joy the day David Cameron announced that the UK would hold a referendum on whether or not the country should remain a member of the European Union. Putin’s joy will doubtless have been compounded when, on 23 June 2016, the advisory EU referendum returned a very narrow margin in favour of leaving the EU and the Brexit project was born. Although the Conservative Party will never admit it, they played right into Putin’s hands in the way the referendum was held. Also, Boris Johnson and his Conservative and UKIP colleagues took a leaf out of the same fascist playbook that Putin uses in the way they campaigned in favour of leaving the European Union. By agreeing that the advisory referendum could be run without a qualified majority, in contravention of the UK government’s code of practice on referendums, and that the result would be binding, the Conservatives allowed what was essentially an opinion poll on EU membership that could have delivered a 50-50 result (meaning neither Leave nor Remain) to determine the long-term socio-economic future and the quality of life of the British people. As for Johnson’s Vote Leave campaign and in concert with Nigel Farage’s demagoguery and the Leave.EU campaign, emphasis was placed on portraying EU migrants as a threat to British jobs, British workers and British society, while the European Union itself was clearly painted as the enemy of the United Kingdom. Such a political strategy mirrors that of Putin and also of Adolf Hitler’s Nazi party.

The UK is no longer a member of the EU and now we are beginning to see the true nature of Brexit and its consequences with increasing disruption of the British economy, from groceries absent from supermarket shelves and enormous queues of lorries waiting to pass between Dover and Calais, to the likely contraction of Britain’s farming and food sectors. But what of the UK’s fishing industry, the protection of which was hailed as a primary justification for Brexit? The industry is now experiencing excessive pain as a result of the UK being a third country outside the EU’s single market. And the Conservative Government’s response? Prime minister Johnson can no longer blame the EU for the UK’s problems as easily as the Conservatives have enjoyed in the past. So, again he takes a leaf from the fascist playbook and portrays the French as our new, yet also an old enemy. This is of course, red meat to English Nationalists empowered by the Leave campaign’s stream of lies and distortions, but necessary to maintain loyalty to Johnson and Brexit. Vladimir Putin will though be rubbing his hands in delight at the economic disruption being experienced in the UK as well as friction between the UK, France and the EU itself.

If and when Russia does make an incursion into the Ukraine, we can be sure that Putin’s confidence that such an action may indeed be conceivable is significantly thanks to Boris Johnson, the Conservative Party and Brexit. Putin will doubtless enjoy the fact that Brexit has driven a wedge into relationships between the UK and the EU and, indeed, many vocal Conservative and UKIP Brexiters even hoped that Brexit itself would hasten the break-up of the EU. We often hear that Putin likes to identify useful fools in other countries who can aid his plans. As we look back at the EU referendum and the dishonesty of the campaigning that preceded it, and if we take note of the Russian oligarchs funding the Conservative Party as well as prime minister Johnson’s friendship with Evgeny Lebedev, the son of a former KGB agent and now Lord Lebedev of Hampton and Siberia, it takes little imagination to believe that Boris Johnson and so very many Conservative MPs and advisors will unquestionably be regarded by Putin as useful fools, as evidenced by the increasingly painful reality that Brexit is now manifesting.